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Afpak Strategy: a threat to Pakistan's security
By General Retd Mirza Aslam Beg
We were expecting that with the coming of Obama to
power, Pakistan will find some relief on its North Western borders
with Afghanistan and peace process with India would begin, but it
didn't happen. On the contrary, Obama reneged on the promise to help
solve the Kashmir issue, and closed his eyes and lips to Israeli
atrocities on Hammas, thus lowering his own image of 'a leader of
substance.' Now he has spelled-out the Afpak Strategy and in pursuit
of its objectives, he has confronted Pakistan, with the demand for
"shifting the Centre of gravity of Afghan war, to Pakistan." The
implementation has just begun with the launching of the army against
the militants in Dir and Swat. However, there are some other aspects
that need to be examined.
One: The American and the allied forces are preparing to leave
Afghanistan as acknowledged by Obama that his "comprehensive new
strategy has to have an exit strategy, and there's got to be a sense
that there is not a perpetual drift." Obama's strategy recognizes
"that the military forces alone are not the solution, and there are
other aspects that cannot be ignored in pursuing the new strategy."
They have also realized that "Iraq's Anbar experience will not work
in Afghanistan" and are looking for a political solution. The
Americans are desperate, no doubt, because, the newly organized
Shadow Army of the resistance in Afghanistan, is inflicting heavy
losses of men and material over the occupation forces as the CIA
Long War Journal reports. The economic melt-down further limits
their capability to sustain the war, therefore the need to control
this "perpetual drift."
Two: Obama wants to ensure that their exit from Afghanistan must not
be chaotic, as in Vietnam, and even after the exit, they must retain
a degree of influence in Afghanistan, with the support of compliant
governments in Pakistan and Iran, and the surrogate in Afghanistan.
For the last two years, therefore, they have been trying for regime
change in Pakistan but have failed. There is no harm in trying and
try they will. Year after year, millions of dollars have been
allocated to the CIA, to bring about regime change in Iran, but with
no success. Now they are, hoping to get results after the 10 June
2009 elections in Iran, and bring on board, the 'Contact Group,' to
support the surge against the militants in FATA and other areas of
Pakistan.
The
Nation:
May 31, 2009
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