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The ball is now in
Nawaz Sharif’s court
By Rana Qaisar
ISLAMABAD: The Supreme Court has declared Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz
(PML-N) chief Nawaz Sharif eligible to become member of the national
or provincial assembly, setting aside the Lahore High Court decision
declaring him disqualified from contesting election for being a
convict in plane hijacking and concealment of assets cases.
The two-time prime minister, who has also been chief minister of the
Punjab twice, however, faces a legal bar to become prime minister
for the third time. Former president General (r) Pervez Musharraf
had introduced a law in 2002 to stop Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto
from becoming prime minister for the third term even if their
convictions were set aside by a court of law.
Though Musharraf, as part of a political deal with Benazir Bhutto,
had promulgated the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) to
enable all those convicts and disqualified persons, against whom
legal proceedings had been initiated before the 1999 military coup,
to contest the 2008 elections, the Sharif brothers were denied this
deal.
After the federal cabinet approved the NRO, Benazir Bhutto, as
Musharraf claims, did not honour her commitment and returned to
Pakistan before the elections. Before the promulgation of the NRO
and amidst reports of a covert deal between Musharraf and
Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif had made
an attempt to return from exile he was sent back to Saudi Arabia
soon after his arrival. But the Saudis facilitated his return after
Bhutto made a historic comeback for the second time.
The NRO cut-off date (October 12, 1999), however, barred Nawaz
Sharif from contesting 2008 election but Shahbaz Sharif made it to
the Punjab Assembly, winning the election from two constituencies.
The PML-N and the PPP joined hands and formed coalition governments
in the Centre and in the Punjab. But this marriage of convenience
did not last long as the judges’ issue became a bone of contention.
The PML-N wanted their restoration and the PPP-led government did
not agree to it – the former finally pulled out its ministers from
the federal cabinet and chose to sit on opposition benches in the
National Assembly.
Following the restoration of judges and the PML-N government in the
Punjab, it was expected that the PML-N will again join the PPP-led
government in the Centre but the Sharifs did not agree to change
their position until “all demands” are met – their disqualification
case was still pending with the Supreme Court. Now the
disqualification bar has been removed but the third-term ban on
becoming prime minister continues. And this does not require a
two-thirds majority. To remove this bar, it only needs a simple
majority of parliament with the prior approval of the president.
Will the president give his consent to remove this bar? This is a
million dollar question. The political pundits believe that the day
this bar is removed, Nawaz Sharif will not stop short of becoming
prime minister and this is what may prevent the president from
agreeing to remove the third term ban on a person to become
country’s chief executive as he would certainly not like to
sacrifice his party’s government which he heads for all practical
purposes.
On the other hand, the choices for Nawaz Sharif are: sit in
opposition or wait till next election. If he contests election and
decides to sit in opposition, he will choose to be seen as a strong
opposition leader to pressure the president and the government to
undo the condition barring him from becoming prime minister as a
quid pro quo to support the 18th constitutional amendment which has
to be passed by parliament to endorse or reject Musharraf’s act of
November 3, 2007.
The other option, which is most likely, is that Nawaz Sharif may not
contest the election if the government, under a deal with some
“guarantors” to play a role, agrees to remove the third term
condition and he stays away from parliamentary politics letting his
party to continue supporting the PPP-led government while sitting in
opposition in the centre. What will he choose? The ball is now in
his court.
Daily Times: May
28, 2009
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